- Kamala Harris has surged ahead of Donald Trump, 48%-43%, in a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll.
- The findings reflect an eight-point turnaround in the presidential race from late June.
Democrat Kamala Harris has surged ahead of Republican Donald Trump, 48%-43%, a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll found.
The findings reflect an eight-point turnaround in the presidential race from late June, when Trump had led President Joe Biden in the survey by nearly four points.
The vice president's small lead was fueled by big shifts among some key demographic groups traditionally crucial for Democrats, including Hispanic and Black voters and young people. Among those with annual incomes of less than $20,000, in the biggest change, a three-point Trump edge over Biden in June has become a 23-point Harris advantage over Trump in August.
She has succeeded in doing what Biden never could this year: lead Trump. Her advantage is within the survey's margin of error, and the poll was taken after the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, which rallied party spirits.
At least for the moment, though, the findings reflect momentum in Harris' direction as the sprint to the general election is poised to begin.
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The poll of 1,000 likely voters, taken by landline and cellphone Sunday through Wednesday, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. With the election approaching, the survey is now measuring likely voters; previous polls were of registered voters.
Without the customary rounding of results, her edge would be closer to four points than five, 47.6%-43.3%.
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The success of 'Brat Summer' and targeted appeals
The findings underscore the success of the targeted appeals at the Democratic convention last week.
"With the 'Brat Summer' of Kamala Harris emojis winding down, young people, persons of color, and low-income households have swung dramatically toward the vice president," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. "These same demographics were emphasized and woven together by numerous speakers at the convention."
Among the biggest shifts since June, all outside the poll's margin of error:
- Voters 18 to 34 years old moved from supporting Trump by 11 points to supporting Harris by 13 points, 49%-36%.
- Hispanics, a group the Republican campaign has been cultivating, moved from supporting Trump by two points to supporting Harris by 16 points, 53%-37%.
- Black voters, traditionally one of the most overwhelmingly Democratic groups, moved from supporting Biden by 47 points to supporting Harris by 64 points, 76%-12%.
Lower-income voters now support Harris 58%-35%. She has emphasized her commitment to creating an "opportunity economy" that makes housing more affordable and tackles price-gouging on food, although she hasn't released detailed policy plans.
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'I'm very excited to vote for a woman'
Voters of all stripes say the election has been transformed. Harris is the first woman of color and the first person of South Asian descent to be nominated for president by a major party. At 59, she is a generation younger than Trump, the former president, who is 78, and Biden, who is 81.
"I think people are cautiously optimistic that they're going to have a lot better chance with Harris than they would have had with Biden going head-to-head with Trump," said Amy Hendrix, 46, of Fort Worth, Texas. An independent who usually votes Democratic, she was among those called in the poll. "I'm very excited to vote for a woman, and that's just the truth."
But Jason Streem, also 46, a dentist from the Cleveland suburbs who supports Trump, objected to the way Harris became the nominee.
"She was never part of the running process," he said in a follow-up interview. "She never received the primary votes." He called it "the most undemocratic way of picking a nominee."
Biden stepped back from his reelection race a little more than a month ago, under pressure by party leaders and donors who feared he could not win. That opened the door for an unprecedented quick switch to Harris for the nomination.
In the USA TODAY/Suffolk poll, Biden's vote share this year never topped 37.5%, and he trailed Trump from as little as half a percentage point last spring − basically, a tie − to nearly four points immediately after the Biden-Trump debate in early summer.
This was the first survey since independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump. Independent Cornel West is now at 2%. Green Party nominee Jill Stein and Libertarian Chase Oliver are at 1% each.
When voters supporting third-party candidates were asked for their second choice, 32% said Harris, 24% West and 15% Trump.
